The Unexpected Pre-Thanksgiving Shopping Surge: Black Friday Comes Early

While Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally associated with crowded stores and Black Friday deals, recent data suggests a shift in consumer behavior. Foot traffic to major retailers is actually peaking the weekend before Thanksgiving, indicating that the holiday shopping season is starting earlier than ever.

Surprising Statistics

Our analysis of foot traffic data reveals a notable trend:

• In both 2023 and 2024, big box retailers experienced higher customer traffic the weekend preceding Thanksgiving compared to Black Friday weekend itself.
• In 2024, this pre-Thanksgiving surge was particularly pronounced, with foot traffic a remarkable 27% higher than Black Friday weekend.

This data challenges the conventional wisdom that Thanksgiving weekend reigns supreme in terms of in-store shopping activity.

Possible Explanations for the Early Rush

Several factors may contribute to this pre-Thanksgiving shopping surge:

• Extended Black Friday Sales: Retailers are increasingly launching Black Friday deals weeks in advance of the actual event. This allows consumers to capitalize on discounts and make purchases before the peak shopping frenzy.
• Thanksgiving Weekend Priorities: Many individuals prioritize family time and holiday gatherings during Thanksgiving weekend, potentially motivating them to complete their shopping beforehand.
• Strategic Shopping Behavior: Consumers may be using the weekend before Thanksgiving to scout deals, compare prices, and plan their Black Friday shopping strategies.
• Internet Shopping: With Cyber Monday looming (and many digital deals starting earlier), consumers may be shifting their focus online, contributing to a decrease in physical store traffic on Thanksgiving weekend. Additionally, the convenience of online shopping and the ability to compare prices and avoid crowds may be further incentivizing consumers to start their shopping earlier.

Implications for Retailers and Consumers

This trend has important implications for both retailers and consumers:

• Retailers: Stores should consider adjusting their promotional calendars and staffing levels to accommodate this earlier surge in shoppers.
• Consumers: To avoid crowds and secure desired items, shoppers should proactively seek out pre-Thanksgiving deals and consider completing their holiday shopping early.

This emerging trend of pre-Thanksgiving shopping highlights the evolving nature of consumer behavior and the need for both retailers and shoppers to adapt their strategies accordingly.

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